Mcx Commodity Tips

Wheat yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.56% down at 1205.6. India’s wheat exports this season is still in the making even after country’s food minister said no wheat exports are allowed from government stocks. 

India has maintained a ban on the export of wheat for the past three years, but overflowing stocks have nudged the government to examine whether to allow some exports. In Delhi wheat prices gained3.1 rupee to end at 1195.2 rupees per 10 kg. In yesterday's sure shot stock tips trading session Wheat has touched the low of 1205.2 after opening at 1213, and finally settled at 1205.6. 

For today's session market is looking to take support at 1201.7, a break below could see a test of 1197.9 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1212.9, a move above could see prices testing 1220.3.

Trading Ideas:

Wheat trading range is 1197.9-1220.3.

India’s wheat exports this season is still in making even after food minister said no wheat exports are allowed

Wheat is having resistance at 1212.90 and support at 1201.70 level.

NCDEX accredited warehouses wheat stocks remained at 6504 tonnes. 

In Delhi wheat prices gained3.1 rupee to end at 1195.2 rupees per 10 kg.

Mustardseed yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.1% down at 2878 tracking weakness in other oilseed counters. 

The total arrivals of mustard seed increased by 35000 bags from the previous day to 3.40 lakh bags in major mandies. In the Sriganganagar spot market in Rajasthan the price edged up by 33.75 rupee to 2788.75 rupees per 20 kgs. 

In yesterday's trading session Mustardseed has touched the low of 2871 after opening at 2884, and finally settled at 2878. 

For today's session market is looking to take support at 2867.7, a break below could see a test of 2857.3 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 2891.7, a move above could see prices testing 2905.3.

Trading Ideas Mcx Commodity Tips :

Mustard Seed trading range is 2857.3-2905.3.

Mustardseed yesterday traded with the negative node tracking weakness in other oilseed counters

Mustardseed looks to take support at 2868 and resistance at 2892.

NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks rose by 603 tonnes to 162175 tonnes. 

In the Sriganganagar spot market in Rajasthan the price edged up by 33.75 rupee to 2788.75 rupees per 20 kgs.

How To Trade In Nifty

How To Trade In Nifty : 

On Friday, the Indian benchmark indices have bounced back from previous day's plunge. The markets are trading strong on fresh buying at banking, metal and realty. Back on the domestic front, government has provided additional cash subsidy of about Rs 20000 crore to oil market companies (OMCs) for fiscal 2010-11.

The Indian exports in April showing $23.9 billion in terms of revenue causing an upward shift to be witnessed with annualized growth of 34.4% for the previous month. Also, the broader market indices are trading lower as BSE Mid Cap fell by 0.9% and BSE Small Cap was down 0.5% respectively. The key benchmark indices are trading at BSE 30-share Sensex above 18,550 mark, while Nifty is above the 5,550 mark.

At 12:23PM BSE SENSEX was at 18550.6 up by 214.81 points or by 1.17 % and then NSE Nifty was at 5553.95 up by 67.8 points or by 1.24 %.

The BSE MIDCAP was at 6902.44 up by 58.28 points or by 0.85 % while the BSE SMLCAP was at 8380.19 up by 44.76 points or by 0.54 %.

The BSE Sensex touched 100 sure intraday tips high of 18590.63 and intraday low of 18280.7 The NSE Nifty touched intraday high of 5564 and intraday low of 5472.15

On the economic front, according to the government data showed on Thursday, with the fuel index prices climbing to 12.25%, India's food price index also rose7.7% in the year to April 30. The drop was recorded to lowest in 18 months. As per the previous week records, the annual food and fuel inflation were noticed to be 8.53 % and 13.53% respectively.

Additionally, as compared with an annual rise of 12.11% of the previous, the index of the primary article price was recorded to be up 11.96%. The fall in the prices of vegetable, and pulses, especially potatoes, is reasoned to be the cause behind the drop. The reserve bank of India (RBI) recently raised its interest rates 50 basis points.

On the corporate front, nnoventive Industries made a weak debut on the bourses today, opening nearly 6 per cent lower on the BSE vis-a-vis its issue price of Rs 117 per share.

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd. (MTNL) lost 2.9% to Rs 44, set for its lowest close since March 21. The company witnessed the loss of Rs 11 bn in Q4, according to reports.

The Market breadth, indicating the overall strength of the market, was weak. On BSE out of total shares traded 2,584, shares advanced were 1,581 while 877 shares declined and 126 were unchanged.

The top gainers of the BSE Sensex pack were ICICI Bank Ltd. (Rs. 1079.00,+2.27%), DLF Ltd. (Rs. 232.40,+2.11%), Hindalco Industries Ltd. (Rs. 199.30,+2.05%), ITC Ltd. (Rs. 187.50,+2.01%), Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. (Rs. 86.55,+1.94%), among others.

In BSE, BSE_FMCG index was at 3780.13 up by 64.27 points or by 1.73%. Nestle India Ltd. (Rs. 4115.00,+2.29%), ITC Ltd. (Rs. 187.50,+2.01%), United Spirits Ltd. (Rs. 1069.90,+1.76%), Marico Ltd. (Rs. 135.50,+1.57%), Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (Rs. 391.90,+1.49%).

Free Nifty Tips Intraday

Spare capacity (ex-Libya) higher than CY08 levels We expect OPEC spare capacity, ex Libya, to average 3.4 mb/d in CY11 and 2.5 mb/d in CY12, higher than levels seen during CY08. In addition, we expect non- OPEC production and NGLs (natural gas liquids) to increase by 0.8 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively, Y-o-Y, thereby effectively limiting the call on OPEC in CY11. At USD 115/bbl Brent, our view is that, the market is discounting the possibility of the Middle East crisis spreading to other countries like Saudi Arabia (accounts for ~80% of OPEC spare capacity) and Iran. In CY11, we expect OPEC spare capacity to remain adequate due to increase in Brazilian bio-fuels supply and start of deepwater projects in Brazil in Q4CY11.

Oil demand to remain robust from China and India We believe that global oil demand will remain robust and average 89.4 mb/d in CY11 (+1.4 mb/d Y-o-Y), driven by demand growth from China (+6.5% Y-o-Y) and India (+3.3% Y-o-Y), while demand from OECD economies (-0.2% Y-o-Y) remains relatively muted.

Outlook: Brent to remain range-bound at USD 110-115/bbl in Q1FY12E We are now moving to using Brent as a benchmark for our forecasts. On a quarterly basis, we expect crude prices to remain at USD 110-115/bbl in Q1FY12 as the impact of Libyan crisis may remain and market focuses on demand-supply mismatch in Q2FY12/Q3FY12 as refineries come out from their maintenance season (Q1FY12). Q2FY12 onwards, we expect prices to moderate as fear of geopolitical issues subside and market focuses on the impact of prices on global crude demand.

Bio-fuel supplies from Brazil in Q3FY12 and higher production from deepwater projects in Q3/Q4FY12 will also alleviate the fear of lower crude supplies. Our new FY12 and FY13 Brent crude price estimates are USD 100/bbl (USD 89/bbl earlier) and USD 95/bbl (USD 94/bbl earlier), respectively.

Crude – Focus Back On Supply Side The recent unrest in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) and tragic events in Japan have firmly turned markets’ attention on the supply side—a key inflection point for sentiment, in our view. We are moving to a Brent crude price benchmark and, going forward, we will reassess our crude price call on a quarterly basis.

We expect Q1FY12 to remain range-bound between USD 110 and USD 115/bbl; our FY12 forecast increases to USD 100/bbl (versus our prior estimate of USD 89/bbl). The key risks to our estimates come from demand destruction due to higher crude prices (typically oil burden greater than 4% poses a risk) and instability in other significant countries like Nigeria, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Demand: Remains All About China And India We believe that CY11 global crude demand estimates pose less risk, as we are in midst of an upward revision to global crude demand estimates, and US has been recently showing signs of improvement in the broader economy (recent Fedex guidance).

While we do not rule out a delayed impact of global crude demand due to high crude prices, we believe the same will be less pronounced as seen in the last correction, as: (1) we are in a upward economic cycle in a high liquidity regime; and (2) earlier demand correction was exacerbated by the financial/mortgage crisis, which is absent currently.

In CY12, however, the risk is that a higher oil price environment may lead to some demand

destruction; historically, this has been the case when oil’s wallet share increases beyond 4- 5% (Chart 2).

Global oil demand estimates revised upwards Global resurgence of economic growth has led the International Energy Agency (IEA) to increase its global oil demand estimates, backed by rise in both base demand in CY10 and incremental demand in CY11 over CY10. In CY11, IEA forecasts global oil demand to remain robust and average 89.4 mb/d (+1.4 mb/d Y-o-Y), driven by demand growth from China (+6.5% Y-o-Y) and India (+3.3% Y-o-Y), while demand from OECD economies (-0.2% Y-o-Y) remains relatively muted.

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