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Monday, July 18, 2011

Commodity Market Tips


Bullion prices held onto small gains after an industry health check aimed at reviving investor confidence showed that eight European banks are not strong enough to withstand a prolonged recession and need to raise 2.5 billion euros in capital. Gold's gains appeared limited after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday the central bank was prepared to act if the recovery faltered, but made clear the Fed was not at that point. 

Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 67.28, where as 50DMA is at 22467.24 and gold is trading above the same and getting support at 23023 and below could see a test of 22976 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 23104, a move above could see prices testing 23138.

Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range is 22976-23138.
Gold gained as some began to seek a hedge against the growing threat of a catastrophic U.S. govt default
Gold looks to take support at 22873 and resistance at 23072.
Spdr gold trust holdings rose by 10.60 tonnes to 1236.01 tonnes.

Silver gained higher as worries over U.S. and European nation debt issues intensified. Ratings agency Standard & Poor's warned there is a one-in-two chance it could cut the United States' prized AAA credit rating if a deal on raising the government's debt ceiling is not agreed soon. Holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's SPDR Gold Trust and that of the largest silver-backed ETF, New York's iShares Silver Trust remained unchanged.

Silver is completing a strong up week at 58473. Key resistance is nearby at 59200 from the May reactionary high post bubble bounce. Above here we run into the 50% bubble bounce level at 61000. We now see good support for silver near 56800. The gold silver ratio broke the down side of our two month consolidation triangle this week at 41.40. The ratio has continued lower to current 40.75. 

While below the former triangle support we see risk for a drop back to 39.22. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 65.64, where as 50DMA is at 54946.44 and silver is trading above the same and getting support at 58262 and below could see a test of 58051 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 58622, a move above could see prices testing 58771.

Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range is 58051-58771.
Silver gained higher as worries over U.S. and European nation debt issues intensified
Silver is having resistance at 58651 and support at 57036 level.
In spot silver looks to hold support at 38.20$ and getting resistance at 40.20$ level. 

Crude rose lifted by lower oil supplies from Canada and higher U.S. equities, to post their third straight weekly gains, outweighing the day's bleak economic reports. Germany and Italy are expected to oppose any second release of emergency oil reserves by the International Energy Agency, which needs the backing of all 28 members if it is to pour more oil on a volatile crude market. Libya is not ready to start pumping oil from fields held by rebels in the east of the country. Oil gains on U.S debt fears, low inflation. Moody’s Investors Service put the U.S. 

Aaa credit rating on review for a downgrade on July 13 citing concern officials won’t raise the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt limit in time to prevent a missed payment. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 50.48, where as 50DMA is at 4379.92 and crude is trading below the same and getting support at 4322 and below could see a test of 4314 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4335, a move above could see prices testing 4340.

Trading Ideas:
Crude trading range is 4314-4340.
Crude rose lifted by lower oil supplies from Canada and higher U.S. equities
Crude looks to test support at 4253 and resistance is seen at 4356.
Germany and Italy are expected to oppose any second release of emergency oil reserves by the IEA. 

Copper ended up showing a further resilience to bend amid macro-economic concerns and a still-uncertain Asian demand outlook. Copper's positive tone continued to decouple from the broader base complex as prices maintained momentum near last week's 3-month high, as supply-side risks remained in place and investors continued to pin their hopes on a second-half demand revival in China. 

Copper held on to its gains late in the session after results of European bank stress tests showed 8 of 90 banks had failed, roughly in line with expectations. The tests did not build in the impact of a Greek default, and all big banks passed. 

Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 22.3 percent from last Friday, the exchange said on Friday. Copper yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.02% up at 435. Some support had been seen from the LME stock also which came up by 0mt, the total stock at LME is now at 462025mt.

In yesterday's trading session copper has touched the low of 434.75 after opening at 434.8, and finally settled at 435. For today's session market is looking to take support at 434.8, a break below could see a test of 434.5 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 435.3, a move above could see prices testing 435.5.

Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range is 434.5-435.5.
Copper gained showing resilience to bend amid macroeconomic concerns and uncertain Asian demand outlook
Copper is taking resistance at 437.10 and support is seen at 431.70.
Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 22.3 percent.

Zinc prices gained as monthly rate of the US industrial output rose 0.2% in June supporting the prices. Zinc prices made some headway in June and are expected to remain resilient in coming months, even though the market is in clear supply surplus and inventories will continue to rise.
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